Friday, December 31, 2010

End of the year charts

2010 has been a great year. You can never say you've seen it all this year, but I've seen a lot. From the slums of India to the Andes of Peru, from mono during graduation to getting my mind blown at Inception, from late hours in Wudaokou to long hours in St. Mary's, from observing someone else's logs on a plane to finding my own bottle of beer underneath 18 inches of snow, from line dancing to piranha catching, from a visit to a Chinese mannequin factory to a night as a Georgetown Cupcake, it's been a good year. It's a shame that it has to end but I think this is the nature of years - they end and the one that follows is bound to be greater. At least mathematically, 2011 > 2010. Yeah it's funny how that works.

But trying to understand the world mathematically, instead of in flowery superlatives, has been a big part of this year for me. I almost stopped blogging after starting full time graduate studies this fall because work has been so busy. This semester has felt next to nothing like college and sometimes I wake up Friday morning and wonder what I did all week, and it's hard to remember because it's been a blur of math. But for delving so deep into the subject I can now see many more layers to the world - probability distributions, random variables, functions and vectors that define our surroundings and happenings. Nearly everything can be put into a mathematical model which often makes us better understand, or differently envision, phenomena. Sometimes these models can be used to make predictions, but sometimes they are meaningless without larger context or a multi-disciplinarian approach to understanding the forces behind our data.

For example, in this year's NFL MVP race, Tom Brady and Michael Vick stand out. A lot of numbers are thrown around like Brady's 8 game interception-less streak and Vick's 9 rushing TDs. However it's hard to understand how amazing (or not) Brady's streak is unless you take a deeper look into the types of passes he throws (how many of them are risky?) and if he's abnormally lucked out by defenders dropping picks. Similarly many of Vick's rushing TDs are not equal - some are 1 yard dives, some are flashy 20 yard sprints, some are 3 yard scrambles that involved a half dozen jukes. Thus, it is often said that statistics is math + bullshit because it can be so easy to mislead with numbers. I find it good protocol to always view stunning statistics with a good dose of skepticism and try to visualize all the complications that the simple number effectively masks. Did you know? Tom Brady has more touchdown passes (34) this year than Michael Vick (21) and Brett Favre (11) combined. Did you know? Michael Vick has more career jail time (23 months) than Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers combined.

Anyways here are some ridiculous graphs I created.

The 2010 US Census told us that there are 308 million Americans. Over half of them were aware after the US national soccer team tied Slovenia 2-2 on June 18 that there was a country named Slovenia. A considerably smaller percentage of our geographically inept country was aware before that. And the population of Slovenia (just over 2 million) is in fact represented accurately on that graph.

This graph shows how "blown" my mind is on any given date, going back to late September. As you can see I'm normally not too thrown off by any surprises and keep a relatively level head that varies around a 0.75 on the Berfatz-Julenweiss Scale (named after two pioneers in Mind-Blowing). However you may notice that in early December my mind was devastatingly blown apart upon a monumental event. On this occasion I was informed that Willow Smith, she of the song "I Whip My Hair," was none other than the 10 year old daughter of Will and Jada Smith.

For more on pop artists and age, here is a graph of the Billboard year-end top 25 artists, with their positions vs. their age. When the artist was a band I just picked their most famous person. We have an interesting scatter here with people near my age already successful such as Lady Gaga (24) and Jason Derulo (21). Outliers include Lady Antebellum (Linda Davis is 48) and Susan Boyle (49) on the high side, and Justin Bieber (16) on the low side.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

World Cup Bids

Did you know that tomorrow (Thursday, December 2), a FIFA committee in Zurich will decide the host nations of both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups? Probably not. This news just caught me by surprise. As I loved speculating on the locations of the Olympics, I wanted to write something about the World Cup. However, not that I know very much about the inner workings of the IOC, but I know even less about FIFA. Nonetheless, I can still speculate. For some quick history, 2018 and 2022 will be the 21st and 22nd World Cups respectively, with the first one taking place in 1930. The Cup will be held in Brazil in 2014 and of course just occurred in South Africa. Europe and South America have the primary hosts, with a few Cups in North America and one each in Asia and Africa.

2018
The 2018 World Cup will be in Europe. That much we know, because the only bids now are England, Russia, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain/Portugal. Yes those last two are joint bids. If you recall, the 2002 World Cup was the only previous joint bid in history, taking place in South Korea and Japan. Both these joint bids make better sense, as none of these nations are separated by open sea and have closer linguistic and cultural ties than South Korea and Japan. Belgium and Netherlands have even successfully joint held Eurocup 2000. Some things to be aware of here are that all host nations automatically qualify, so with the joint bids, this would mean two automatic bids. This is probably less of an issue with Spain/Portugal, two very strong sides, and more with Belgium, which has not qualified for the last two World Cups. England is a very strong candidate here, as the birthplace of modern football has not held the Cup since it won in 1966. I think Russia though has a very attractive offer here though, as the Cup has never really approached Eastern Europe or Central Asia. Fourteen geographically diverse Russian cities (though none in the far east) are prepared to host games. Spain of course won the last World Cup, which I imagine can only help their bid. In addition, the Netherlands/Belgium bid has plans for some sort of mass transit bicycle distribution, which I think is quite cool.

Prediction: Russia. Globalizing football by bringing the World Cup to new places has been a big theme for FIFA in this millennium. Russia is a logical new choice without the infrastructure concerns of South Africa or even Brazil.

2022
The bids are South Korea, United States, Japan, Australia and Qatar. The latter two would both be first time hosts which always helps. South Korea and Japan are recent hosts, which always hurts, enough to even rule them out. The United States always has a strong bid, and their message this time, delivered by former President Bill Clinton was diversity. No matter who is represented in the finals, the stadium could be filled by those nations' supporters. The 1994 World Cup was an attendance bonanza though its lasting effects on promoting soccer in the US is debatable. Nevertheless, the infrastructure is undeniably present. Qatar is a very interesting choice. The FIFA president has already stated that he wants to bring the Cup to the Arabic world. Qatar successfully hosted the 2006 Asian Games and may be the most experienced Arab nation in hosting large events. Doha was even a bid for the 2016 Olympic Games although their desire to move the events to October was shot down. There are no plans to move the World Cup out of the traditional June and July slot, which is a problem because temperatures reach over 40 degrees Celsius in summertime Qatar. In response, the nation has stated it will show off its oil wealth and unveil air-conditioned stadiums. So yeah there's a lot to take in right there - Qatar's bid has the most extreme positives and negatives. (An additional Qatar negative: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtHIa9AHgLk) The Australian bid is also very interesting. FIFA does want to bring the Cup to Oceania and the infrastructure and passion seem to be in place in Australia. It is a very remote country which makes international travel difficult.

Prediction: Australia. I think it'd be tough for Qatar to overcome all the doubts and I don't see international clamor to bring the Cup back to the States. Australia would be just different enough to be cool.